Premier League (Ukraine) · Sat, Sep 19 · 12:30 · Zoria Luhansk vs Dynamo Kyiv
Likeliest: Dynamo Kyiv win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the away win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Zoria Luhansk15%19%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Dynamo Kyiv60%57%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 81% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 25% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Zoria Luhansk
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · at Bukovyna Chernivtsi (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Veres Rivne (A)1-1
- Aug 31 · v Metalist 1925 (H)0-3
- Aug 17 · at Polissya Zhytomyr (A)2-1
- Aug 9 · v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (H)1-3
Dynamo Kyiv
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 14 · v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · v LNZ Cherkasy (H)0-0
- Aug 31 · at Bukovyna Chernivtsi (A)0-3
- Aug 16 · v Kolos Kovalivka (H)2-1
- Aug 13 · at Qarabağ (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Zoria Luhansk | Dynamo Kyiv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.