Month by month: every number we published, graded.

    Each calendar month on its own, graded the way the record page grades: our probabilities against the bookmakers' closing line on the same fixtures. It starts in September 2026, with the engine behind today's numbers.

    Month
    Matches graded
    Called the result right
    1,524
    52.9% (close 53.7%)
    1,285
    49.0% (close 49.6%)

    Called the result right: how often our most likely of home, draw and away was the result, next to the same count for the closing line. Markets beating the close: of the markets we publish, how many scored better than the close that month by more than the noise.

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