Champions League. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Champions League · next 16
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 8 percent
Market probability, home win: 12 percent
Our probability, draw: 16 percent
Market probability, draw: 17 percent
Our probability, away win: 75 percent
Market probability, away win: 71 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 60 percent
Market probability, home win: 58 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 18 percent
Market probability, away win: 19 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 67 percent
Market probability, home win: 65 percent
Our probability, draw: 20 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 15 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 62 percent
Market probability, home win: 60 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 18 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 56 percent
Market probability, home win: 54 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 21 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 88 percent
Market probability, home win: 85 percent
Our probability, draw: 8 percent
Market probability, draw: 10 percent
Our probability, away win: 4 percent
Market probability, away win: 5 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 30 percent
Market probability, home win: 33 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 45 percent
Market probability, away win: 43 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 92 percent
Market probability, home win: 90 percent
Our probability, draw: 6 percent
Market probability, draw: 7 percent
Our probability, away win: 2 percent
Market probability, away win: 3 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 38 percent
Market probability, home win: 39 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 40 percent
Market probability, away win: 39 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 40 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 34 percent
Market probability, away win: 33 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 78 percent
Market probability, home win: 74 percent
Our probability, draw: 14 percent
Market probability, draw: 15 percent
Our probability, away win: 9 percent
Market probability, away win: 11 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 64 percent
Market probability, home win: 62 percent
Our probability, draw: 20 percent
Market probability, draw: 21 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 18 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 47 percent
Market probability, home win: 46 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 30 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 79 percent
Market probability, home win: 76 percent
Our probability, draw: 16 percent
Market probability, draw: 17 percent
Our probability, away win: 5 percent
Market probability, away win: 7 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 43 percent
Market probability, home win: 44 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 31 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 82 percent
Market probability, home win: 78 percent
Our probability, draw: 12 percent
Market probability, draw: 14 percent
Our probability, away win: 6 percent
Market probability, away win: 8 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Champions League results
- Oct 14Bodø/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund1-0
- Oct 14ŠK Slovan Bratislava v VfB Stuttgart0-3
- Oct 14Real Betis v FC Porto3-2
- Oct 14Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens3-1
- Oct 14Manchester City v PSG2-4
- Oct 14Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe6-0
- Oct 14Roma v Real Madrid3-4
- Oct 14Feyenoord v Como3-2
- Oct 14LASK v Liverpool3-6
- Oct 13Villarreal v Napoli3-1
- Oct 13Viking FK v FC Bayern München3-3
- Oct 13Inter Milan v Club Brugge KV3-4
- Oct 13Atletico Madrid v Manchester United2-0
- Oct 13RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven1-0
- Oct 13Galatasaray v Barcelona1-4
- Sep 10Como v RB Leipzig4-1
- Sep 10FC Bayern München v Bodø/Glimt5-0
- Sep 10SK Slavia Praha v RC Lens2-3
- Sep 10Fenerbahçe v Roma1-1
- Sep 10PSV Eindhoven v Shakhtar Donetsk1-1
- Sep 9Napoli v Arsenal0-1
- Sep 9Liverpool v Atletico Madrid2-1
- Sep 9Sporting v Galatasaray3-1
- Sep 9Barcelona v Feyenoord5-1
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
16
Spots
1
Graded here
64
last 90 days
Called right
55%
of 64
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Champions League
Favourite won
57%
Drawn
17%
Underdog won
26%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 184 matches we priced.
Read next