Europa League. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Europa League · next 16
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 14 percent
Market probability, home win: 18 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 62 percent
Market probability, away win: 58 percent
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Royale Union Saint-Gilloise v Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Likeliest: Royale Union Saint-Gilloise win · 72%
16:45spot · btts
Our probability, home win: 72 percent
Market probability, home win: 69 percent
Our probability, draw: 16 percent
Market probability, draw: 17 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 14 percent
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Our probability, home win: 58 percent
Market probability, home win: 56 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 21 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
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Our probability, home win: 72 percent
Market probability, home win: 69 percent
Our probability, draw: 17 percent
Market probability, draw: 19 percent
Our probability, away win: 11 percent
Market probability, away win: 12 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 11 percent
Market probability, home win: 16 percent
Our probability, draw: 20 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 68 percent
Market probability, away win: 64 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 6 percent
Market probability, home win: 9 percent
Our probability, draw: 14 percent
Market probability, draw: 15 percent
Our probability, away win: 80 percent
Market probability, away win: 76 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 30 percent
Market probability, home win: 32 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 43 percent
Market probability, away win: 41 percent
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Our probability, home win: 8 percent
Market probability, home win: 12 percent
Our probability, draw: 19 percent
Market probability, draw: 19 percent
Our probability, away win: 73 percent
Market probability, away win: 69 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 48 percent
Market probability, home win: 48 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 28 percent
Market probability, away win: 28 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 43 percent
Market probability, home win: 44 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 31 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 57 percent
Market probability, home win: 56 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 29 percent
Market probability, home win: 32 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 42 percent
Market probability, away win: 41 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 19 percent
Market probability, home win: 23 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 56 percent
Market probability, away win: 52 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 61 percent
Market probability, home win: 60 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 17 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 42 percent
Market probability, home win: 43 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 31 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 14 percent
Market probability, home win: 18 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 21 percent
Our probability, away win: 66 percent
Market probability, away win: 61 percent
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Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Europa League results
- Oct 15GNK Dinamo Zagreb v RSC Anderlecht1-0
- Oct 15TSG Hoffenheim v Beşiktaş2-3
- Oct 15Bournemouth v SK Sturm Graz3-0
- Oct 15Ferencváros TC v Viktoria Plzeň2-1
- Oct 15NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia1-1
- Oct 15Benfica v Celtic4-1
- Oct 15Jagiellonia Białystok v FC Ararat-Armenia3-1
- Oct 15AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva2-1
- Oct 15Red Bull Salzburg v AC Milan0-4
- Oct 15Torreense v Sunderland1-2
- Oct 15Royale Union Saint-Gilloise v Real Sociedad1-1
- Oct 15NK Celje v Omonia Nicosia0-3
- Oct 15Olympique Lyonnais v Crystal Palace3-2
- Oct 15Lech Poznań v Bayer 04 Leverkusen0-4
- Oct 15AC Sparta Praha v Lillestrøm SK1-1
- Sep 17Real Sociedad v Bournemouth1-2
- Sep 17Lillestrøm SK v Torreense1-2
- Sep 17Juventus v NEC Nijmegen5-0
- Sep 17Celtic v Ferencváros TC1-3
- Sep 17Beşiktaş v Olympique de Marseille4-1
- Sep 17Crystal Palace v Lech Poznań4-0
- Sep 17Levski Sofia v Red Bull Salzburg0-1
- Sep 16RSC Anderlecht v Olympique Lyonnais1-2
- Sep 16Olympiacos FC v Jagiellonia Białystok2-1
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
16
Spots
8
Graded here
84
last 90 days
Called right
52%
of 84
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Europa League
Favourite won
58%
Drawn
19%
Underdog won
22%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 201 matches we priced.
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