Primera A. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Primera A · next 15
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 38 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 30 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 50 percent
Market probability, home win: 50 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 22 percent
Market probability, away win: 23 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 14 percent
Market probability, home win: 18 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 62 percent
Market probability, away win: 58 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 58 percent
Market probability, home win: 58 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 18 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 30 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 34 percent
Market probability, draw: 31 percent
Our probability, away win: 36 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 72 percent
Market probability, home win: 69 percent
Our probability, draw: 19 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 9 percent
Market probability, away win: 11 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 66 percent
Market probability, home win: 64 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 12 percent
Market probability, away win: 13 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 21 percent
Market probability, home win: 25 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 48 percent
Market probability, away win: 46 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 55 percent
Market probability, home win: 54 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 79 percent
Market probability, home win: 76 percent
Our probability, draw: 16 percent
Market probability, draw: 17 percent
Our probability, away win: 5 percent
Market probability, away win: 7 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 81 percent
Market probability, home win: 77 percent
Our probability, draw: 14 percent
Market probability, draw: 15 percent
Our probability, away win: 5 percent
Market probability, away win: 7 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 24 percent
Market probability, home win: 28 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 44 percent
Market probability, away win: 42 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 40 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 29 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 58 percent
Market probability, home win: 56 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 18 percent
Market probability, away win: 19 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 67 percent
Market probability, home win: 65 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 10 percent
Market probability, away win: 13 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Primera A results
- Oct 20Deportivo Pasto v Alianza Valledupar FC0-1
- Oct 19Deportivo Cali v Junior Barranquilla0-0
- Oct 18Llaneros FC v Independiente Santa Fe1-0
- Oct 18Atlético Bucaramanga v América de Cali1-1
- Oct 18Rionegro Águilas Doradas v Deportes Tolima2-1
- Oct 18Independiente Medellín v Once Caldas0-2
- Oct 17Millonarios v Jaguares de Córdoba4-1
- Oct 17Boyacá Chicó FC v Atlético Nacional1-4
- Oct 14Junior Barranquilla v Deportivo Pereira1-1
- Oct 13Atlético Bucaramanga v Rionegro Águilas Doradas1-1
- Oct 13Boyacá Chicó FC v Cúcuta Deportivo0-1
- Oct 12América de Cali v Independiente Medellín1-2
- Oct 11Jaguares de Córdoba v Deportes Tolima3-2
- Oct 10Junior Barranquilla v Internacional de Bogotá2-2
- Oct 10Deportivo Pereira v Deportivo Cali0-0
- Oct 10Once Caldas v Llaneros FC1-0
- Oct 9Alianza Valledupar FC v Rionegro Águilas Doradas2-2
- Oct 9Fortaleza CEIF v Millonarios1-1
- Oct 8Atlético Nacional v Deportes Tolima0-0
- Oct 6Independiente Medellín v Independiente Santa Fe0-1
- Oct 5Llaneros FC v América de Cali1-2
- Oct 4Atlético Bucaramanga v Junior Barranquilla3-1
- Oct 4Cúcuta Deportivo v Deportivo Pereira4-0
- Oct 4Internacional de Bogotá v Once Caldas1-1
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
15
Spots
2
Graded here
50
last 90 days
Called right
32%
of 50
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Primera A
Favourite won
31%
Drawn
40%
Underdog won
29%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 48 matches we priced.
Table · 2026/27
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América de Cali | 14 | +16 | 28 |
| 2 | Atlético Nacional | 12 | +14 | 26 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 14 | +11 | 26 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 15 | +10 | 25 |
| 5 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 13 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 | Independiente Medellín | 14 | +2 | 23 |
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