Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 8 · 16:15 · Auxerre vs Paris
Likeliest: Auxerre win · 46%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Auxerre46%38%+7
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−4
OursMarket
Paris29%32%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 62% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 54% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auxerre
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Feb 1 · at Toulouse (A)0-0
- Jan 23 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-1
- Jan 17 · at Lens (A)0-1
- Jan 4 · at Brest (A)0-2
- Dec 21 · v Monaco (H)1-2
Paris
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 4 · at Lorient (A)0-2
- Jan 31 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-2
- Jan 25 · v Angers SCO (H)0-0
- Jan 18 · at Nantes (A)2-1
- Jan 12 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Auxerre | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.