Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Dec 7 · 16:15 · Le Havre vs Paris
Likeliest: Paris win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Havre35%35%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%29%−1
OursMarket
Paris38%36%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Havre
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Nov 30 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-1
- Nov 22 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-3
- Nov 8 · v Nantes (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · at Toulouse (A)0-0
- Oct 29 · v Brest (H)1-0
Paris
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Nov 29 · v Auxerre (H)1-1
- Nov 23 · at LOSC Lille (A)2-4
- Nov 7 · v Rennes (H)0-1
- Nov 1 · at Monaco (A)1-0
- Oct 29 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Le Havre | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.