Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 5 · 15:15 · Lorient vs Paris
Likeliest: Lorient win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 41%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lorient53%41%+12
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Paris22%30%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 45% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 70% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 59% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 58% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lorient
DrawDrawDrawWinLoss
- Mar 21 · at Toulouse (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · v Lens (H)2-1
- Mar 8 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Auxerre (H)2-2
- Feb 22 · at Nice (A)3-3
Paris
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Mar 22 · v Le Havre (H)3-2
- Mar 15 · at Strasbourg (A)0-0
- Mar 8 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Nice (H)1-0
- Feb 21 · at Toulouse (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Lorient | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.