Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Nov 23 · 19:45 · LOSC Lille vs Paris
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LOSC Lille54%58%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Paris22%19%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 42% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 75% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LOSC Lille
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Nov 9 · at Strasbourg (A)0-2
- Nov 6 · at Crvena Zvezda (A)0-1
- Nov 2 · v Angers SCO (H)1-0
- Oct 29 · at Nice (A)0-2
- Oct 26 · v Metz (H)6-1
Paris
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Nov 7 · v Rennes (H)0-1
- Nov 1 · at Monaco (A)1-0
- Oct 29 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)3-3
- Oct 24 · v Nantes (H)1-2
- Oct 19 · at Lens (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | LOSC Lille | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.