Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 19 · 15:15 · Metz vs Paris
Likeliest: Paris win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Metz30%29%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Paris47%44%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 71% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 40% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Metz
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 10 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-3
- Apr 5 · v Nantes (H)0-0
- Mar 22 · at Rennes (A)0-0
- Mar 15 · v Toulouse (H)3-4
- Mar 8 · at Lens (A)0-3
Paris
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Apr 10 · v Monaco (H)4-1
- Apr 5 · at Lorient (A)1-1
- Mar 22 · v Le Havre (H)3-2
- Mar 15 · at Strasbourg (A)0-0
- Mar 8 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Metz | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-7 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.