Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 8 · 19:45 · Olympique Lyonnais vs Paris
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 66%
A 66% home win. The market says 57%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais66%57%+9
OursMarket
Draw20%24%−4
OursMarket
Paris14%19%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 52% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 52% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 81% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 43% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 75% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Mar 1 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-3
- Feb 22 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
- Feb 15 · v Nice (H)2-0
- Feb 7 · at Nantes (A)1-0
- Feb 4 · v Laval (H)2-0
Paris
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Mar 1 · v Nice (H)1-0
- Feb 21 · at Toulouse (A)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Lens (H)0-5
- Feb 8 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
- Feb 4 · at Lorient (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.