Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Sep 19 · 15:15 · Paris FC vs RC Strasbourg
Likeliest: Paris FC win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris FC48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
RC Strasbourg27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris FC
DrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Olympique de Marseille (A)3-2
- Aug 30 · v Nice (H)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Troyes (A)0-0
RC Strasbourg
LossWinWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v AS Monaco (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Troyes (A)6-2
- Aug 29 · v RC Lens (H)2-1
- Aug 21 · at Olympique de Marseille (A)0-4