Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Jan 4 · 19:45 · Paris Saint Germain vs Paris
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 68%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 30%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain68%82%−14
OursMarket
Draw19%12%+6
OursMarket
Paris13%6%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 70% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 47% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 94% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 18% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 88% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 93% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Dec 20 · at Fontenay Vendée Foot (A)4-0
- Dec 17 · v Flamengo (H)1-1
- Dec 13 · at Metz (A)3-2
- Dec 10 · at Athletic Club (A)0-0
- Dec 6 · v Rennes (H)5-0
Paris
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Dec 20 · at Raon l'Etape (A)3-0
- Dec 13 · v Toulouse (H)0-3
- Dec 7 · at Le Havre (A)0-0
- Nov 29 · v Auxerre (H)1-1
- Nov 23 · at LOSC Lille (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.