Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Nov 29 · 18:00 · Paris vs Auxerre
Likeliest: Paris win · 56%
We make it 64% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris56%51%+4
OursMarket
Draw21%26%−5
OursMarket
Auxerre24%23%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 53% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 49% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Nov 23 · at LOSC Lille (A)2-4
- Nov 7 · v Rennes (H)0-1
- Nov 1 · at Monaco (A)1-0
- Oct 29 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)3-3
- Oct 24 · v Nantes (H)1-2
Auxerre
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Nov 23 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
- Nov 9 · at Angers SCO (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · v Olympique Marseille (H)0-1
- Oct 29 · at Strasbourg (A)0-3
- Oct 26 · v Le Havre (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Paris | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.