Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 3 · 15:15 · Paris vs Brest
Likeliest: Paris win · 53%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris53%47%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−3
OursMarket
Brest24%26%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 53% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 53% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 64% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Apr 26 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-1
- Apr 19 · at Metz (A)3-1
- Apr 10 · v Monaco (H)4-1
- Apr 5 · at Lorient (A)1-1
- Mar 22 · v Le Havre (H)3-2
Brest
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Apr 24 · v Lens (H)3-3
- Apr 19 · at Nantes (A)1-1
- Apr 4 · v Rennes (H)3-4
- Mar 21 · at Auxerre (A)0-3
- Mar 14 · at Monaco (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Paris | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.