Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 22 · 16:15 · Paris vs Le Havre
Likeliest: Paris win · 42%
We make it 66% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw23%31%−8
OursMarket
Le Havre35%26%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 45% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 50% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 74% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 69% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 62% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Mar 15 · at Strasbourg (A)0-0
- Mar 8 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Nice (H)1-0
- Feb 21 · at Toulouse (A)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Lens (H)0-5
Le Havre
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Mar 15 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
- Mar 8 · at Brest (A)0-2
- Feb 28 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-1
- Feb 22 · at Nantes (A)0-2
- Feb 15 · v Toulouse (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Paris | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.