Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Feb 14 · 20:05 · Paris vs Lens
Likeliest: Lens win · 41%
We make it 66% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris35%24%+11
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Lens41%50%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 52% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 55% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 76% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 33% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Feb 8 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
- Feb 4 · at Lorient (A)0-2
- Jan 31 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-2
- Jan 25 · v Angers SCO (H)0-0
- Jan 18 · at Nantes (A)2-1
Lens
WinLossWinWinWin
- Feb 7 · v Rennes (H)3-1
- Feb 4 · at Troyes (A)4-2
- Jan 30 · v Le Havre (H)1-0
- Jan 24 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-3
- Jan 17 · v Auxerre (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Paris | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.