Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 26 · 15:15 · Paris vs LOSC Lille
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 39%
A 35% home win. The market says 23%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris35%23%+12
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
LOSC Lille39%51%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 49% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 77% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 31% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Apr 19 · at Metz (A)3-1
- Apr 10 · v Monaco (H)4-1
- Apr 5 · at Lorient (A)1-1
- Mar 22 · v Le Havre (H)3-2
- Mar 15 · at Strasbourg (A)0-0
LOSC Lille
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Apr 18 · v Nice (H)0-0
- Apr 12 · at Toulouse (A)4-0
- Apr 4 · v Lens (H)3-0
- Mar 22 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-1
- Mar 19 · at Aston Villa (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Paris | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.