Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Apr 10 · 17:00 · Paris vs Monaco
Likeliest: Monaco win · 38%
A 37% home win. The market says 25%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris37%25%+12
OursMarket
Draw25%25%−1
OursMarket
Monaco38%49%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 58% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 60% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 51% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 75% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 34% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Apr 5 · at Lorient (A)1-1
- Mar 22 · v Le Havre (H)3-2
- Mar 15 · at Strasbourg (A)0-0
- Mar 8 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Nice (H)1-0
Monaco
WinWinWinWinWin
- Apr 5 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-1
- Mar 22 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-1
- Mar 14 · v Brest (H)2-0
- Mar 6 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)3-1
- Feb 28 · v Angers SCO (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Paris | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.