Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 1 · 14:00 · Paris vs Nice
Likeliest: Nice win · 39%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris38%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Nice39%33%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 50% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 56% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 67% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 54% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Feb 21 · at Toulouse (A)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Lens (H)0-5
- Feb 8 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
- Feb 4 · at Lorient (A)0-2
- Jan 31 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-2
Nice
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Feb 22 · v Lorient (H)3-3
- Feb 15 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · v Monaco (H)0-0
- Feb 4 · v Montpellier (H)3-2
- Feb 1 · v Brest (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Paris | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.