Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 17 · 19:00 · Paris vs Paris Saint Germain
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris23%19%+4
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
Paris Saint Germain55%61%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 39% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 81% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 23% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris
WinWinLossWinLoss
- May 10 · at Rennes (A)1-2
- May 3 · v Brest (H)4-0
- Apr 26 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-1
- Apr 19 · at Metz (A)3-1
- Apr 10 · v Monaco (H)4-1
Paris Saint Germain
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- May 13 · at Lens (A)2-0
- May 10 · v Brest (H)1-0
- May 6 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Lorient (H)2-2
- Apr 28 · v FC Bayern München (H)5-4
| Last 10 games | Paris | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.