Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Dec 13 · 20:05 · Paris vs Toulouse
Likeliest: Paris win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 37%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris53%37%+16
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−6
OursMarket
Toulouse24%34%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 46% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 66% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 63% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 52% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Dec 7 · at Le Havre (A)0-0
- Nov 29 · v Auxerre (H)1-1
- Nov 23 · at LOSC Lille (A)2-4
- Nov 7 · v Rennes (H)0-1
- Nov 1 · at Monaco (A)1-0
Toulouse
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- Dec 6 · v Strasbourg (H)1-0
- Nov 29 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-2
- Nov 23 · v Angers SCO (H)0-1
- Nov 9 · at Lorient (A)1-1
- Nov 2 · v Le Havre (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Paris | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.