Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Sep 12 · 15:15 · RC Strasbourg vs AS Monaco
Likeliest: AS Monaco win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RC Strasbourg29%31%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
AS Monaco44%44%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 41% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 2.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RC Strasbourg
LossWinWin
- Sep 6 · at Troyes (A)6-2
- Aug 29 · v RC Lens (H)2-1
- Aug 21 · at Olympique de Marseille (A)0-4
AS Monaco
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 4 · at PSG (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Olympique de Marseille (H)2-0
- Aug 27 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)4-1
- Aug 23 · at Le Havre (A)1-0
- Aug 20 · at Górnik Zabrze (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | RC Strasbourg | AS Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 5-0-0 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 60% |
| Both teams scored | — | 60% |
| Clean sheets | — | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.