Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Oct 17 · 15:15 · RC Strasbourg vs PSG
Likeliest: PSG win · 73%
Likely score: 1–2
A 73% away win. The market says 68%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RC Strasbourg11%15%−4
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
PSG73%68%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 73% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 28% | 32% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 90% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 18% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 2.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RC Strasbourg
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at Nice (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Paris FC (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v AS Monaco (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Troyes (A)6-2
- Aug 29 · v RC Lens (H)2-1
PSG
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 14 · at Manchester City (A)4-2
- Oct 10 · v Le Mans (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Olympique de Marseille (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Stade Brestois (A)1-0
- Sep 9 · v ŠK Slovan Bratislava (H)6-1
| Last 10 games | RC Strasbourg | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.