Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Aug 29 · 15:15 · RC Strasbourg vs RC Lens
Likeliest: RC Strasbourg win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 27%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RC Strasbourg45%27%+18
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
RC Lens29%46%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 58% | −21 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 61% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 54% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 73% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 36% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RC Strasbourg
Loss
- Aug 21 · at Olympique de Marseille (A)0-4
RC Lens
WinWin
- Aug 22 · v Auxerre (H)5-2
- Aug 16 · v PSG (H)1-0