Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 10 · 19:00 · Rennes vs Paris
Likeliest: Rennes win · 47%
A 29% away win. The market says 18%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rennes47%61%−15
OursMarket
Draw25%21%+4
OursMarket
Paris29%18%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 63% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 82% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 39% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 77% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rennes
WinWinWinWinLoss
- May 3 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-4
- Apr 26 · v Nantes (H)2-1
- Apr 19 · at Strasbourg (A)3-0
- Apr 11 · v Angers SCO (H)2-1
- Apr 4 · at Brest (A)4-3
Paris
DrawWinWinLossWin
- May 3 · v Brest (H)4-0
- Apr 26 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-1
- Apr 19 · at Metz (A)3-1
- Apr 10 · v Monaco (H)4-1
- Apr 5 · at Lorient (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Rennes | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.