Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 15 · 14:00 · Strasbourg vs Paris
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 64%
A 64% home win. The market says 54%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Strasbourg64%54%+11
OursMarket
Draw19%25%−6
OursMarket
Paris16%22%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 53% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 78% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 46% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 75% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 71% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Strasbourg
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Mar 12 · at Rijeka (A)2-1
- Mar 7 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
- Mar 3 · v Reims (H)2-1
- Feb 27 · v Lens (H)1-1
- Feb 22 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)3-1
Paris
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Mar 8 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Nice (H)1-0
- Feb 21 · at Toulouse (A)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Lens (H)0-5
- Feb 8 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Strasbourg | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.