Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Feb 21 · 18:00 · Toulouse vs Paris
Likeliest: Toulouse win · 51%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Toulouse51%47%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Paris25%24%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Toulouse
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Feb 15 · at Le Havre (A)1-2
- Feb 8 · at Angers SCO (A)0-1
- Feb 4 · v Amiens SC (H)1-0
- Feb 1 · v Auxerre (H)0-0
- Jan 25 · at Brest (A)2-0
Paris
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Feb 14 · v Lens (H)0-5
- Feb 8 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
- Feb 4 · at Lorient (A)0-2
- Jan 31 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-2
- Jan 25 · v Angers SCO (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Toulouse | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.