Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Sep 6 · 13:00 · Troyes vs RC Strasbourg
Likeliest: Troyes win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 31%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Troyes44%31%+13
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
RC Strasbourg33%41%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 59% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 69% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 43% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Troyes
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Aug 29 · at Lorient (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Paris FC (H)0-0
- May 9 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)0-1
- May 2 · v Laval (H)4-0
- Apr 25 · at Saint-Étienne (A)3-0
RC Strasbourg
LossWin
- Aug 29 · v RC Lens (H)2-1
- Aug 21 · at Olympique de Marseille (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Troyes | RC Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | — |
| Both teams scored | 50% | — |
| Clean sheets | 40% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.