League One. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
League One · next 20
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 24 percent
Market probability, home win: 28 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 47 percent
Market probability, away win: 45 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 19 percent
Market probability, home win: 23 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 56 percent
Market probability, away win: 53 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 33 percent
Market probability, home win: 36 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 37 percent
Market probability, away win: 36 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 50 percent
Market probability, home win: 50 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 23 percent
Market probability, away win: 24 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 60 percent
Market probability, home win: 58 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 20 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 42 percent
Market probability, home win: 43 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 30 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 64 percent
Market probability, home win: 62 percent
Our probability, draw: 20 percent
Market probability, draw: 21 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 17 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 31 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 38 percent
Market probability, away win: 37 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 24 percent
Market probability, home win: 28 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 46 percent
Market probability, away win: 44 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 34 percent
Market probability, home win: 36 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 37 percent
Market probability, away win: 36 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 39 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 32 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 59 percent
Market probability, home win: 57 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 18 percent
Market probability, away win: 19 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 64 percent
Market probability, home win: 61 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 15 percent
Market probability, away win: 17 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 43 percent
Market probability, home win: 43 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 30 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 32 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 41 percent
Market probability, away win: 40 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 27 percent
Market probability, home win: 31 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 44 percent
Market probability, away win: 42 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 36 percent
Market probability, home win: 38 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 35 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 31 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 38 percent
Market probability, away win: 38 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 17 percent
Market probability, home win: 21 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 58 percent
Market probability, away win: 54 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 59 percent
Market probability, home win: 57 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 18 percent
Market probability, away win: 20 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent League One results
- Oct 17Plymouth Argyle v Huddersfield Town0-2
- Oct 17Bradford City v Stevenage2-0
- Oct 17Barnsley v Cambridge United1-2
- Oct 17Wigan Athletic v Reading1-0
- Oct 17Stockport County v Bromley1-0
- Oct 17Sheffield Wednesday v AFC Wimbledon5-0
- Oct 17Leyton Orient v Blackpool2-0
- Oct 17Wycombe Wanderers v Notts County2-0
- Oct 17Leicester City v Doncaster Rovers2-1
- Oct 17Milton Keynes Dons v Luton Town2-1
- Oct 17Peterborough United v Burton Albion2-2
- Oct 15Mansfield Town v Oxford United1-1
- Oct 10Doncaster Rovers v Burton Albion1-0
- Oct 10Leicester City v Peterborough United1-3
- Oct 10Stevenage v Wigan Athletic1-0
- Oct 10Huddersfield Town v Sheffield Wednesday2-2
- Oct 10Milton Keynes Dons v Reading1-5
- Oct 10Stockport County v Barnsley3-1
- Oct 10Bradford City v Leyton Orient0-0
- Oct 10Mansfield Town v Bromley2-1
- Oct 10Cambridge United v Blackpool1-0
- Oct 10Wycombe Wanderers v Luton Town0-1
- Oct 10Plymouth Argyle v AFC Wimbledon2-1
- Oct 10Notts County v Oxford United1-2
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
20
Spots
7
Graded here
114
last 90 days
Called right
42%
of 114
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in League One
Favourite won
50%
Drawn
27%
Underdog won
22%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 480 matches we priced.
Table · 2026/27
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradford City | 10 | +5 | 20 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 10 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Huddersfield Town | 10 | +9 | 19 |
| 4 | Plymouth Argyle | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 10 | +4 | 19 |
| 6 | Sheffield Wednesday | 9 | +12 | 18 |
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