Liga 1. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Liga 1 · next 9
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 16 percent
Market probability, home win: 21 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 58 percent
Market probability, away win: 54 percent
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Club Atlético Grau v Asociación Deportiva Tarma
Likeliest: Club Atlético Grau win · 54%
20:15spot · btts
Our probability, home win: 54 percent
Market probability, home win: 52 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 21 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 64 percent
Market probability, home win: 61 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 15 percent
Market probability, away win: 17 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 40 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 32 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 54 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 24 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
—
Our probability, home win: 22 percent
Market probability, home win: 26 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 50 percent
Market probability, away win: 47 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 11 percent
Market probability, home win: 15 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 65 percent
Market probability, away win: 61 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 66 percent
Market probability, home win: 63 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 15 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 67 percent
Market probability, home win: 64 percent
Our probability, draw: 20 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 15 percent
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Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Liga 1 results
- Oct 18Cienciano v Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca1-0
- Oct 18Alianza Atlético de Sullana v Universitario1-4
- Oct 18FC Cajamarca v CD Moquegua0-1
- Oct 18Club Sporting Cristal v Comerciantes Unidos4-2
- Oct 18Alianza Lima v Club Atlético Grau3-1
- Oct 17Melgar v Deportivo Garcilaso4-2
- Oct 17ADC Juan Pablo II v Sport Boys2-0
- Oct 16Los Chankas CYC v Asociación Deportiva Tarma2-1
- Oct 16Sport Huancayo v Cusco FC2-1
- Oct 11Cusco FC v Alianza Lima1-2
- Oct 11Sport Boys v Alianza Atlético de Sullana1-3
- Oct 11Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca v Club Sporting Cristal0-1
- Oct 11Universitario v Melgar2-2
- Oct 10Comerciantes Unidos v ADC Juan Pablo II1-1
- Oct 10Deportivo Garcilaso v Sport Huancayo0-1
- Oct 8Club Atlético Grau v Los Chankas CYC0-0
- Oct 8CD Moquegua v Cienciano0-2
- Sep 30Cienciano v Los Chankas CYC1-1
- Sep 23Asociación Deportiva Tarma v Cienciano2-1
- Sep 20ADC Juan Pablo II v CD Moquegua4-0
- Sep 20Sport Huancayo v Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca3-2
- Sep 20Melgar v Sport Boys1-1
- Sep 19Deportivo Garcilaso v Universitario4-0
- Sep 19Club Sporting Cristal v Club Atlético Grau3-1
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
9
Spots
1
Graded here
40
last 90 days
Called right
50%
of 40
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Liga 1
Favourite won
54%
Drawn
18%
Underdog won
28%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 39 matches we priced.
Table · 2026
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Sporting Cristal | 14 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 | Universitario | 13 | +7 | 27 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 14 | +12 | 26 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo | 14 | +4 | 26 |
| 5 | Melgar | 13 | +11 | 25 |
| 6 | Alianza Lima | 13 | +7 | 23 |
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