National League. The honest number.

    Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.

    Table →

    National League · next 12

    1
    X
    2
    Price
    Gateshead v Tamworth
    Likeliest: Tamworth win · 57%
    18:45
    Our probability, home win: 20 percent
    Market probability, home win: 24 percent
    Our probability, draw: 23 percent
    Market probability, draw: 23 percent
    Our probability, away win: 57 percent
    Market probability, away win: 53 percent
    —
    Harrogate Town v Sutton United
    Likeliest: Harrogate Town win · 55%
    11:30
    Our probability, home win: 55 percent
    Market probability, home win: 54 percent
    Our probability, draw: 26 percent
    Market probability, draw: 26 percent
    Our probability, away win: 19 percent
    Market probability, away win: 20 percent
    —
    Eastleigh v Boston United
    Likeliest: Eastleigh win · 40%
    11:30
    Our probability, home win: 40 percent
    Market probability, home win: 41 percent
    Our probability, draw: 27 percent
    Market probability, draw: 26 percent
    Our probability, away win: 33 percent
    Market probability, away win: 33 percent
    —
    Southend United v FC Halifax Town
    Likeliest: Southend United win · 59%
    14:00
    Our probability, home win: 59 percent
    Market probability, home win: 57 percent
    Our probability, draw: 22 percent
    Market probability, draw: 23 percent
    Our probability, away win: 19 percent
    Market probability, away win: 21 percent
    —
    Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde
    Likeliest: Boreham Wood win · 73%
    14:00
    Our probability, home win: 73 percent
    Market probability, home win: 69 percent
    Our probability, draw: 16 percent
    Market probability, draw: 18 percent
    Our probability, away win: 11 percent
    Market probability, away win: 13 percent
    —
    Hartlepool United v Hornchurch
    Likeliest: Hartlepool United win · 40%
    14:00
    Our probability, home win: 40 percent
    Market probability, home win: 42 percent
    Our probability, draw: 29 percent
    Market probability, draw: 27 percent
    Our probability, away win: 31 percent
    Market probability, away win: 31 percent
    —
    Yeovil Town v Altrincham
    Likeliest: Yeovil Town win · 47%
    14:00
    Our probability, home win: 47 percent
    Market probability, home win: 47 percent
    Our probability, draw: 27 percent
    Market probability, draw: 26 percent
    Our probability, away win: 26 percent
    Market probability, away win: 27 percent
    —
    Solihull Moors v Carlisle United
    Likeliest: Carlisle United win · 60%
    14:00spot · away
    Our probability, home win: 18 percent
    Market probability, home win: 22 percent
    Our probability, draw: 22 percent
    Market probability, draw: 23 percent
    Our probability, away win: 60 percent
    Market probability, away win: 56 percent
    —
    Barrow AFC v Forest Green Rovers
    Likeliest: Barrow AFC win · 43%
    14:00
    Our probability, home win: 43 percent
    Market probability, home win: 43 percent
    Our probability, draw: 27 percent
    Market probability, draw: 26 percent
    Our probability, away win: 31 percent
    Market probability, away win: 31 percent
    —
    Aldershot Town v Wealdstone
    Likeliest: Aldershot Town win · 41%
    14:00
    Our probability, home win: 41 percent
    Market probability, home win: 41 percent
    Our probability, draw: 26 percent
    Market probability, draw: 26 percent
    Our probability, away win: 33 percent
    Market probability, away win: 33 percent
    —
    Scunthorpe United v Woking
    Likeliest: Woking win · 37%
    14:00
    Our probability, home win: 36 percent
    Market probability, home win: 37 percent
    Our probability, draw: 27 percent
    Market probability, draw: 26 percent
    Our probability, away win: 37 percent
    Market probability, away win: 36 percent
    —
    Kidderminster Harriers v Worthing FC
    Likeliest: Worthing FC win · 37%
    16:30
    Our probability, home win: 34 percent
    Market probability, home win: 36 percent
    Our probability, draw: 29 percent
    Market probability, draw: 27 percent
    Our probability, away win: 37 percent
    Market probability, away win: 37 percent
    —

    Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.

    Recent National League results

    Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.

    Fixtures priced
    12
    Spots
    1
    Graded here
    126
    last 90 days
    Called right
    52%
    of 126

    “Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →

    How the favourite fares in National League
    Favourite won
    56%
    Drawn
    21%
    Underdog won
    23%

    The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 444 matches we priced.

    Table · 2026/27
    #TeamPGDPts
    1Boreham Wood13+2135
    2Harrogate Town13+1228
    3Southend United13+1227
    4Yeovil Town13+1725
    5Worthing FC13+924
    6Altrincham13+124
    Full table →
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