National League. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
National League · next 12
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 20 percent
Market probability, home win: 24 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 57 percent
Market probability, away win: 53 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 55 percent
Market probability, home win: 54 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 20 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 40 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 33 percent
Market probability, away win: 33 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 59 percent
Market probability, home win: 57 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 73 percent
Market probability, home win: 69 percent
Our probability, draw: 16 percent
Market probability, draw: 18 percent
Our probability, away win: 11 percent
Market probability, away win: 13 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 40 percent
Market probability, home win: 42 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 31 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 47 percent
Market probability, home win: 47 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 26 percent
Market probability, away win: 27 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 18 percent
Market probability, home win: 22 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 60 percent
Market probability, away win: 56 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 43 percent
Market probability, home win: 43 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 31 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 41 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 33 percent
Market probability, away win: 33 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 36 percent
Market probability, home win: 37 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 37 percent
Market probability, away win: 36 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 34 percent
Market probability, home win: 36 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 37 percent
Market probability, away win: 37 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent National League results
- Oct 10Forest Green Rovers v Hartlepool United2-4
- Oct 10Tamworth v Barrow AFC1-2
- Oct 10Wealdstone v Yeovil Town0-6
- Oct 10Boston United v Southend United1-2
- Oct 10Worthing FC v Solihull Moors5-0
- Oct 10AFC Fylde v Scunthorpe United2-0
- Oct 10Hornchurch v Eastleigh2-0
- Oct 10FC Halifax Town v Gateshead0-0
- Oct 10Woking v Harrogate Town0-1
- Oct 10Altrincham v Aldershot Town3-1
- Oct 10Carlisle United v Kidderminster Harriers0-0
- Oct 9Sutton United v Boreham Wood0-2
- Oct 3Eastleigh v Woking1-3
- Oct 3Solihull Moors v FC Halifax Town0-2
- Oct 3Aldershot Town v Carlisle United1-3
- Oct 3Southend United v AFC Fylde3-1
- Oct 3Hartlepool United v Tamworth0-1
- Oct 3Gateshead v Worthing FC1-2
- Oct 3Boreham Wood v Altrincham3-1
- Oct 3Harrogate Town v Hornchurch3-0
- Oct 3Kidderminster Harriers v Sutton United1-1
- Oct 3Barrow AFC v Wealdstone2-1
- Oct 3Yeovil Town v Boston United6-0
- Sep 30Tamworth v Sutton United2-0
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
12
Spots
1
Graded here
126
last 90 days
Called right
52%
of 126
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in National League
Favourite won
56%
Drawn
21%
Underdog won
23%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 444 matches we priced.
Table · 2026/27
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 13 | +21 | 35 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 13 | +12 | 28 |
| 3 | Southend United | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 13 | +17 | 25 |
| 5 | Worthing FC | 13 | +9 | 24 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 13 | +1 | 24 |
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