Primera Federación. The honest number.

    Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.

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    Primera Federación · next 1

    1
    X
    2
    Price
    Mirandés v Racing de Ferrol
    Likeliest: Mirandés win · 57%
    14:30
    Our probability, home win: 57 percent
    Market probability, home win: 41 percent
    Our probability, draw: 26 percent
    Market probability, draw: 29 percent
    Our probability, away win: 17 percent
    Market probability, away win: 30 percent
    —

    Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.

    Fixtures priced
    1
    Spots
    0
    Graded here
    0
    last 90 days
    Called right
    —
    of 0

    “Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →

    Table · 2026/27
    #TeamPGDPts
    1CD Lugo4+712
    2FC Cartagena4+710
    3Mérida AD4+59
    4Algeciras CF4+39
    5Racing de Ferrol4+39
    6Real Zaragoza4+58
    Full table →
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