US Open Cup. The honest number.

    Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.

    US Open Cup · next 1

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    Price
    Columbus Crew v St.Louis City
    Likeliest: Columbus Crew win · 47%
    00:00
    Our probability, home win: 47 percent
    Market probability, home win: 47 percent
    Our probability, draw: 25 percent
    Market probability, draw: 24 percent
    Our probability, away win: 28 percent
    Market probability, away win: 29 percent
    —

    Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.

    Recent US Open Cup results

    Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.

    Fixtures priced
    1
    Spots
    0
    Graded here
    2
    last 90 days
    Called right
    50%
    of 2

    “Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →

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