A-League Men. The honest number.

    Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.

    Table →

    A-League Men · next 6

    1
    X
    2
    Price
    Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory
    Likeliest: Brisbane Roar win · 45%
    09:00
    Our probability, home win: 45 percent
    Market probability, home win: 45 percent
    Our probability, draw: 28 percent
    Market probability, draw: 27 percent
    Our probability, away win: 28 percent
    Market probability, away win: 28 percent
    —
    Newcastle Jets v Macarthur FC
    Likeliest: Newcastle Jets win · 51%
    04:00spot · home
    Our probability, home win: 51 percent
    Market probability, home win: 47 percent
    Our probability, draw: 25 percent
    Market probability, draw: 24 percent
    Our probability, away win: 24 percent
    Market probability, away win: 29 percent
    —
    Western Sydney Wanderers v Auckland FC
    Likeliest: Auckland FC win · 37%
    06:00
    Our probability, home win: 35 percent
    Market probability, home win: 37 percent
    Our probability, draw: 28 percent
    Market probability, draw: 27 percent
    Our probability, away win: 37 percent
    Market probability, away win: 36 percent
    —
    Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City
    Likeliest: Melbourne Victory win · 37%
    08:40
    Our probability, home win: 37 percent
    Market probability, home win: 39 percent
    Our probability, draw: 28 percent
    Market probability, draw: 26 percent
    Our probability, away win: 36 percent
    Market probability, away win: 35 percent
    —
    Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners
    Likeliest: Wellington Phoenix win · 53%
    02:00
    Our probability, home win: 53 percent
    Market probability, home win: 52 percent
    Our probability, draw: 25 percent
    Market probability, draw: 25 percent
    Our probability, away win: 22 percent
    Market probability, away win: 24 percent
    —
    Sydney FC v Adelaide United
    Likeliest: Sydney FC win · 45%
    04:00
    Our probability, home win: 45 percent
    Market probability, home win: 44 percent
    Our probability, draw: 27 percent
    Market probability, draw: 26 percent
    Our probability, away win: 28 percent
    Market probability, away win: 30 percent
    —

    Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.

    Recent A-League Men results

    Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.

    Fixtures priced
    6
    Spots
    1
    Graded here
    5
    last 90 days
    Called right
    40%
    of 5

    “Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →

    How the favourite fares in A-League Men
    Favourite won
    40%
    Drawn
    28%
    Underdog won
    33%

    The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 141 matches we priced.

    Table · 2026/27
    #TeamPGDPts
    1Auckland FC1+23
    2Macarthur FC1+13
    3Wellington Phoenix1+13
    4Central Coast Mariners101
    5Newcastle Jets101
    6Sydney FC101
    Full table →
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