A-League Men. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
A-League Men · next 6
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 45 percent
Market probability, home win: 45 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 28 percent
Market probability, away win: 28 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 51 percent
Market probability, home win: 47 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 24 percent
Market probability, away win: 29 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 35 percent
Market probability, home win: 37 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 37 percent
Market probability, away win: 36 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 37 percent
Market probability, home win: 39 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 36 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 53 percent
Market probability, home win: 52 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 22 percent
Market probability, away win: 24 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 45 percent
Market probability, home win: 44 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 28 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent A-League Men results
- Oct 18Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory2-1
- Oct 17Central Coast Mariners v Newcastle Jets2-2
- Oct 17Macarthur FC v Perth Glory2-1
- Oct 17Auckland FC v Melbourne City3-1
- Oct 16Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers0-0
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
6
Spots
1
Graded here
5
last 90 days
Called right
40%
of 5
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in A-League Men
Favourite won
40%
Drawn
28%
Underdog won
33%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 141 matches we priced.
Table · 2026/27
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland FC | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Macarthur FC | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Wellington Phoenix | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Central Coast Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Sydney FC | 1 | 0 | 1 |
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