FA Cup. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
FA Cup · next 2
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 25 percent
Market probability, home win: 27 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 52 percent
Market probability, away win: 49 percent
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Our probability, home win: 23 percent
Market probability, home win: 26 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 55 percent
Market probability, away win: 51 percent
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Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent FA Cup results
- Oct 17Boreham Wood v Woking3-2
- Oct 17Sutton United v Truro City1-0
- Oct 17Altrincham v FC United of Manchester0-0
- Oct 17Boston United v Scunthorpe United1-3
- Oct 17Carlisle United v Tamworth2-1
- Oct 17Wealdstone v Worthing FC3-0
- Oct 17Kidderminster Harriers v Solihull Moors2-1
- Sep 19Maidenhead United v Ebbsfleet United1-3
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
2
Spots
0
Graded here
8
last 90 days
Called right
50%
of 8
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in FA Cup
Favourite won
63%
Drawn
15%
Underdog won
22%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 79 matches we priced.
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