Serie A. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Serie A · next 10
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 44 percent
Market probability, home win: 44 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 27 percent
Market probability, away win: 28 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 68 percent
Market probability, home win: 65 percent
Our probability, draw: 19 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 15 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 27 percent
Market probability, home win: 30 percent
Our probability, draw: 33 percent
Market probability, draw: 31 percent
Our probability, away win: 40 percent
Market probability, away win: 39 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 29 percent
Market probability, home win: 32 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 41 percent
Market probability, away win: 40 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 66 percent
Market probability, home win: 64 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 12 percent
Market probability, away win: 14 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 74 percent
Market probability, home win: 70 percent
Our probability, draw: 15 percent
Market probability, draw: 17 percent
Our probability, away win: 10 percent
Market probability, away win: 12 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 45 percent
Market probability, home win: 45 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 26 percent
Market probability, away win: 27 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 55 percent
Market probability, home win: 53 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 22 percent
Market probability, away win: 24 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 8 percent
Market probability, home win: 12 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 71 percent
Market probability, away win: 66 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 13 percent
Market probability, home win: 18 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 62 percent
Market probability, away win: 58 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Serie A results
- Oct 19Parma v Torino0-3
- Oct 19Monza v Cagliari4-0
- Oct 18Juventus v Lazio0-3
- Oct 18AC Milan v Atalanta3-2
- Oct 18Fiorentina v Como1-3
- Oct 18Udinese v Lecce0-3
- Oct 17Roma v Genoa2-0
- Oct 17Bologna v Inter Milan1-3
- Oct 17Venezia v Napoli1-0
- Oct 16Frosinone v Sassuolo4-2
- Oct 12Torino v Udinese2-1
- Oct 12Atalanta v Venezia3-1
- Oct 11Cagliari v Juventus1-1
- Oct 11Sassuolo v AC Milan1-1
- Oct 11Lecce v Bologna1-2
- Oct 11Lazio v Monza3-1
- Oct 11Como v Roma0-0
- Oct 10Napoli v Frosinone3-0
- Oct 10Inter Milan v Parma3-0
- Oct 10Genoa v Fiorentina2-1
- Sep 20AC Milan v Lecce3-0
- Sep 20Juventus v Atalanta2-0
- Sep 20Parma v Genoa2-1
- Sep 20Frosinone v Como2-0
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
10
Spots
2
Graded here
65
last 90 days
Called right
52%
of 65
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Serie A
Favourite won
57%
Drawn
22%
Underdog won
22%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 330 matches we priced.
Table · 2026/27
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milan | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 2 | Lazio | 7 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Roma | 7 | +13 | 17 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | Como | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | +4 | 13 |
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