Ligue 1. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Ligue 1 · next 5
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 60 percent
Market probability, home win: 58 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 17 percent
Market probability, away win: 19 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 44 percent
Market probability, home win: 44 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 27 percent
Market probability, away win: 28 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 44 percent
Market probability, home win: 45 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 28 percent
Market probability, away win: 29 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 63 percent
Market probability, home win: 60 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 21 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 18 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 74 percent
Market probability, home win: 70 percent
Our probability, draw: 15 percent
Market probability, draw: 17 percent
Our probability, away win: 11 percent
Market probability, away win: 13 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Ligue 1 results
- Oct 18Olympique Lyonnais v Nice2-1
- Oct 18Le Havre v Auxerre1-3
- Oct 18Lorient v AS Monaco1-0
- Oct 17Troyes v RC Lens1-3
- Oct 17RC Strasbourg v PSG1-3
- Oct 16Le Mans v Toulouse0-3
- Oct 11Troyes v Olympique de Marseille0-2
- Oct 11Nice v RC Strasbourg2-1
- Oct 10AS Monaco v Toulouse2-2
- Oct 10Lille v Le Havre1-0
- Oct 9RC Lens v Olympique Lyonnais2-1
- Sep 20Olympique de Marseille v PSG1-2
- Sep 20Nice v Lille2-1
- Sep 19Toulouse v Le Havre3-2
- Sep 19Angers v Troyes2-0
- Sep 19Le Mans v Lorient2-1
- Sep 19Paris FC v RC Strasbourg2-1
- Sep 18AS Monaco v RC Lens2-1
- Sep 13Le Mans v RC Lens2-2
- Sep 13Lille v Troyes2-0
- Sep 12Auxerre v Nice1-0
- Sep 12Paris FC v Olympique Lyonnais0-0
- Sep 12Le Havre v Angers0-0
- Sep 12Lorient v Toulouse2-2
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
5
Spots
0
Graded here
43
last 90 days
Called right
56%
of 43
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Ligue 1
Favourite won
56%
Drawn
25%
Underdog won
20%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 239 matches we priced.
Table · 2026/27
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympique Lyonnais | 7 | +8 | 14 |
| 2 | PSG | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Lille | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | AS Monaco | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Stade Rennais | 7 | +1 | 13 |
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