Serie A. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Serie A · next 8
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 75 percent
Market probability, home win: 71 percent
Our probability, draw: 17 percent
Market probability, draw: 18 percent
Our probability, away win: 9 percent
Market probability, away win: 11 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 48 percent
Market probability, home win: 48 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 25 percent
Market probability, away win: 26 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 35 percent
Market probability, home win: 37 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 35 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 41 percent
Market probability, home win: 42 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 29 percent
Market probability, away win: 29 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 53 percent
Market probability, home win: 52 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 64 percent
Market probability, home win: 61 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 14 percent
Market probability, away win: 16 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 18 percent
Market probability, home win: 23 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 55 percent
Market probability, away win: 51 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 48 percent
Market probability, home win: 47 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 26 percent
Market probability, away win: 27 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Serie A results
- Oct 19Corinthians v Vitória1-1
- Oct 18Remo v Red Bull Bragantino1-1
- Oct 18Bahia v Flamengo0-3
- Oct 18Grêmio v Cruzeiro2-4
- Oct 18Fluminense v Santos1-2
- Oct 18São Paulo v Vasco da Gama1-0
- Oct 17Athletico v Palmeiras0-2
- Oct 17Atlético Mineiro v Coritiba1-0
- Oct 17Botafogo v Chapecoense1-0
- Oct 16Mirassol v Internacional2-0
- Oct 13Red Bull Bragantino v Cruzeiro4-2
- Oct 12Chapecoense v Athletico1-4
- Oct 12Coritiba v Botafogo1-1
- Oct 11Bahia v Mirassol1-0
- Oct 11Flamengo v Fluminense1-0
- Oct 11Grêmio v Internacional1-1
- Oct 11Palmeiras v Corinthians4-1
- Oct 11Atlético Mineiro v Santos2-1
- Oct 11São Paulo v Vitória2-1
- Oct 10Vasco da Gama v Remo0-0
- Oct 9Fluminense v Coritiba4-0
- Oct 9Palmeiras v Bahia1-0
- Oct 8Athletico v Atlético Mineiro2-2
- Oct 8Santos v Flamengo2-2
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
8
Spots
0
Graded here
123
last 90 days
Called right
55%
of 123
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Serie A
Favourite won
54%
Drawn
27%
Underdog won
19%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 351 matches we priced.
Table · 2026
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 31 | +36 | 67 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 31 | +32 | 66 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 31 | +10 | 51 |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 31 | +4 | 51 |
| 5 | Atlético Mineiro | 31 | +7 | 50 |
| 6 | Bahia | 31 | +5 | 49 |
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