EFL Cup. The honest number.

    Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.

    No EFL Cup fixtures priced right now. The engine prices each match a couple of days before kick-off — so this fills in again when the league next plays.

    Recent EFL Cup results

    Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.

    Fixtures priced
    0
    Spots
    0
    Graded here
    76
    last 90 days
    Called right
    45%
    of 76

    “Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →

    How the favourite fares in EFL Cup
    Favourite won
    65%
    Drawn
    15%
    Underdog won
    19%

    The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 84 matches we priced.

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