Primera División. The honest number.

    Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.

    Table →

    Primera División · next 7

    1
    X
    2
    Price
    Audax Italiano v Huachipato
    Likeliest: Audax Italiano win · 46%
    23:00
    Our probability, home win: 46 percent
    Market probability, home win: 46 percent
    Our probability, draw: 28 percent
    Market probability, draw: 27 percent
    Our probability, away win: 27 percent
    Market probability, away win: 27 percent
    —
    Deportes La Serena v Deportes Concepción
    Likeliest: Deportes La Serena win · 39%
    15:30
    Our probability, home win: 39 percent
    Market probability, home win: 41 percent
    Our probability, draw: 29 percent
    Market probability, draw: 27 percent
    Our probability, away win: 32 percent
    Market probability, away win: 32 percent
    —
    O'Higgins v Cobresal
    Likeliest: O'Higgins win · 59%
    23:00
    Our probability, home win: 59 percent
    Market probability, home win: 57 percent
    Our probability, draw: 23 percent
    Market probability, draw: 23 percent
    Our probability, away win: 18 percent
    Market probability, away win: 20 percent
    —
    Ñublense v Coquimbo Unido
    Likeliest: Coquimbo Unido win · 39%
    15:30
    Our probability, home win: 30 percent
    Market probability, home win: 33 percent
    Our probability, draw: 31 percent
    Market probability, draw: 29 percent
    Our probability, away win: 39 percent
    Market probability, away win: 38 percent
    —
    Unión La Calera v Universidad Católica
    Likeliest: Universidad Católica win · 50%
    18:00
    Our probability, home win: 22 percent
    Market probability, home win: 26 percent
    Our probability, draw: 28 percent
    Market probability, draw: 27 percent
    Our probability, away win: 50 percent
    Market probability, away win: 48 percent
    —
    Palestino v Colo Colo
    Likeliest: Colo Colo win · 46%
    20:30
    Our probability, home win: 26 percent
    Market probability, home win: 29 percent
    Our probability, draw: 28 percent
    Market probability, draw: 27 percent
    Our probability, away win: 46 percent
    Market probability, away win: 44 percent
    —
    Universidad de Concepción v Deportes Limache
    Likeliest: Deportes Limache win · 39%
    23:00
    Our probability, home win: 32 percent
    Market probability, home win: 35 percent
    Our probability, draw: 29 percent
    Market probability, draw: 27 percent
    Our probability, away win: 39 percent
    Market probability, away win: 38 percent
    —

    Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.

    Recent Primera División results

    Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.

    Fixtures priced
    7
    Spots
    0
    Graded here
    19
    last 90 days
    Called right
    42%
    of 19

    “Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →

    Table · 2026
    #TeamPGDPts
    1Universidad de Chile12+1828
    2Colo Colo12+1227
    3Deportes Concepción12+1024
    4Universidad Católica11+822
    5Everton de Viña del Mar11+920
    6Palestino11+217
    Full table →
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