Copa Libertadores. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Copa Libertadores · next 2
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 48 percent
Market probability, home win: 49 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 24 percent
Market probability, away win: 25 percent
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Our probability, home win: 70 percent
Market probability, home win: 67 percent
Our probability, draw: 20 percent
Market probability, draw: 21 percent
Our probability, away win: 10 percent
Market probability, away win: 12 percent
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Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Copa Libertadores results
- Oct 16Estudiantes de La Plata v Flamengo0-0
- Oct 15Fluminense v Palmeiras1-2
- Sep 18Flamengo v Independiente del Valle1-1
- Sep 17Corinthians v Estudiantes de La Plata0-1
- Sep 16LDU v Palmeiras3-2
- Sep 15Platense v Fluminense2-1
- Sep 11Independiente del Valle v Flamengo0-2
- Sep 10Estudiantes de La Plata v Corinthians1-1
- Sep 9Palmeiras v LDU1-0
- Sep 8Fluminense v Platense2-0
- Aug 26Independiente del Valle v Deportes Tolima3-1
- Aug 21Corinthians v Rosario Central1-0
- Aug 20LDU v Mirassol0-0
- Aug 20Flamengo v Cruzeiro2-1
- Aug 19Cerro Porteño v Palmeiras0-1
- Aug 19Coquimbo Unido v Platense0-0
- Aug 19Deportes Tolima v Independiente del Valle0-1
- Aug 18Independiente Rivadavia v Fluminense1-1
- Aug 14Rosario Central v Corinthians0-0
- Aug 13Mirassol v LDU1-1
- Aug 13Cruzeiro v Flamengo0-0
- Aug 12Palmeiras v Cerro Porteño0-0
- Aug 12Platense v Coquimbo Unido0-0
- Aug 11Fluminense v Independiente Rivadavia0-0
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
2
Spots
1
Graded here
24
last 90 days
Called right
29%
of 24
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Copa Libertadores
Favourite won
51%
Drawn
30%
Underdog won
19%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 77 matches we priced.
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