Copa Sudamericana. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Copa Sudamericana · next 2
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 36 percent
Market probability, home win: 38 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 30 percent
Our probability, away win: 32 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
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Our probability, home win: 32 percent
Market probability, home win: 35 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 39 percent
Market probability, away win: 38 percent
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Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Copa Sudamericana results
- Oct 14Atlético Mineiro v Montevideo City Torque3-0
- Oct 14Boca Juniors v Vasco da Gama0-1
- Sep 18Montevideo City Torque v Cienciano3-0
- Sep 16Atlético Mineiro v Santos4-2
- Sep 16São Paulo v Boca Juniors1-1
- Sep 15Vasco da Gama v Independiente Santa Fe2-0
- Sep 11Cienciano v Montevideo City Torque2-0
- Sep 9Santos v Atlético Mineiro2-0
- Sep 9Boca Juniors v São Paulo1-0
- Sep 8Independiente Santa Fe v Vasco da Gama0-0
- Aug 21Botafogo v Cienciano1-0
- Aug 20Olimpia v Vasco da Gama1-4
- Aug 20Macará v Santos0-0
- Aug 20Montevideo City Torque v Tigre2-1
- Aug 19Atlético Mineiro v Red Bull Bragantino2-2
- Aug 19São Paulo v Bolívar3-1
- Aug 14Cienciano v Botafogo6-1
- Aug 13Santos v Macará2-1
- Aug 12Tigre v Montevideo City Torque0-0
- Aug 12Bolívar v São Paulo1-1
- Jul 31O'Higgins v Boca Juniors1-0
- Jul 30Grêmio v Bolívar0-1
- Jul 30Cienciano v Lanús4-0
- Jul 29Vasco da Gama v Independiente Medellín1-0
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
2
Spots
0
Graded here
31
last 90 days
Called right
55%
of 31
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Copa Sudamericana
Favourite won
56%
Drawn
29%
Underdog won
15%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 87 matches we priced.
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