Eredivisie. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Eredivisie · next 8
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 65 percent
Market probability, home win: 62 percent
Our probability, draw: 20 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 18 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 61 percent
Market probability, home win: 58 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 18 percent
Market probability, away win: 20 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 27 percent
Market probability, home win: 30 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 48 percent
Market probability, away win: 45 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 39 percent
Market probability, home win: 40 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 35 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 48 percent
Market probability, home win: 47 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 30 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 41 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 35 percent
Market probability, away win: 34 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 15 percent
Market probability, home win: 19 percent
Our probability, draw: 19 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 66 percent
Market probability, away win: 61 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 42 percent
Market probability, home win: 43 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 33 percent
Market probability, away win: 33 percent
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Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Eredivisie results
- Oct 18FC Twente v FC Utrecht1-2
- Oct 18NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard2-2
- Oct 18FC Groningen v AFC Ajax1-4
- Oct 18SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar2-2
- Oct 18PEC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles4-1
- Oct 17SC Telstar v Feyenoord3-4
- Oct 17ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven2-1
- Oct 16SC Heerenveen v Excelsior4-0
- Oct 11Excelsior v FC Groningen1-5
- Oct 11PEC Zwolle v SC Cambuur0-1
- Oct 11SC Telstar v ADO Den Haag2-2
- Oct 10AFC Ajax v NEC Nijmegen1-1
- Oct 10Fortuna Sittard v FC Twente1-1
- Oct 10Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar2-0
- Oct 10Go Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam3-3
- Oct 9PSV Eindhoven v SC Heerenveen2-0
- Sep 20NEC Nijmegen v Go Ahead Eagles1-1
- Sep 20FC Twente v PSV Eindhoven3-2
- Sep 20Feyenoord v FC Utrecht5-0
- Sep 19Willem II Tilburg v Fortuna Sittard0-1
- Sep 19AFC Ajax v Excelsior2-2
- Sep 19Sparta Rotterdam v SC Heerenveen0-4
- Sep 19ADO Den Haag v SC Cambuur1-1
- Sep 18FC Groningen v PEC Zwolle3-0
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
8
Spots
1
Graded here
66
last 90 days
Called right
39%
of 66
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Eredivisie
Favourite won
51%
Drawn
29%
Underdog won
20%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 265 matches we priced.
Table · 2026/27
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | +21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | +15 | 19 |
| 4 | AFC Ajax | 9 | +15 | 18 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 9 | +7 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | -1 | 15 |
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