1. HNL. The honest number.

    Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.

    Table →

    1. HNL · next 3

    1
    X
    2
    Price
    HNK Gorica v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
    Likeliest: HNK Gorica win · 38%
    13:00
    Our probability, home win: 38 percent
    Market probability, home win: 40 percent
    Our probability, draw: 30 percent
    Market probability, draw: 28 percent
    Our probability, away win: 32 percent
    Market probability, away win: 32 percent
    —
    NK Varaždin v NK Slaven Belupo
    Likeliest: NK Varaždin win · 58%
    16:00
    Our probability, home win: 58 percent
    Market probability, home win: 56 percent
    Our probability, draw: 23 percent
    Market probability, draw: 23 percent
    Our probability, away win: 20 percent
    Market probability, away win: 21 percent
    —
    NK Osijek v NK Rudeš
    Likeliest: NK Osijek win · 68%
    17:00
    Our probability, home win: 68 percent
    Market probability, home win: 65 percent
    Our probability, draw: 20 percent
    Market probability, draw: 20 percent
    Our probability, away win: 13 percent
    Market probability, away win: 15 percent
    —

    Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.

    Recent 1. HNL results

    Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.

    Fixtures priced
    3
    Spots
    0
    Graded here
    24
    last 90 days
    Called right
    50%
    of 24

    “Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →

    How the favourite fares in 1. HNL
    Favourite won
    55%
    Drawn
    24%
    Underdog won
    21%

    The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 136 matches we priced.

    Table · 2026/27
    #TeamPGDPts
    1HNK Hajduk Split10+1022
    2GNK Dinamo Zagreb9+1119
    3NK Varaždin10+618
    4NK Osijek10+417
    5HNK Rijeka9+417
    6NK Istra 196110+112
    Full table →
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