Premier Division. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Premier Division · next 5
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 14 percent
Market probability, home win: 18 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 64 percent
Market probability, away win: 59 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 60 percent
Market probability, home win: 58 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 17 percent
Market probability, away win: 19 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 52 percent
Market probability, home win: 51 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 24 percent
Market probability, away win: 25 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 52 percent
Market probability, home win: 51 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 23 percent
Market probability, away win: 25 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 81 percent
Market probability, home win: 78 percent
Our probability, draw: 12 percent
Market probability, draw: 14 percent
Our probability, away win: 6 percent
Market probability, away win: 8 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Premier Division results
- Oct 19Derry City v St. Patrick's Athletic1-0
- Oct 19Waterford FC v Galway United3-2
- Oct 17Sligo Rovers v Dundalk FC1-1
- Oct 16Bohemian FC v Waterford FC2-1
- Oct 16St. Patrick's Athletic v Shelbourne1-2
- Oct 16Galway United v Shamrock Rovers2-0
- Oct 16Drogheda United v Derry City2-0
- Oct 12Shamrock Rovers v Bohemian FC2-1
- Oct 9Shelbourne v Sligo Rovers5-1
- Oct 8Shamrock Rovers v Drogheda United3-1
- Oct 2Dundalk FC v Bohemian FC1-2
- Sep 25Galway United v Shelbourne0-0
- Sep 19Sligo Rovers v St. Patrick's Athletic0-1
- Sep 18Shamrock Rovers v Waterford FC3-2
- Sep 18Bohemian FC v Drogheda United2-1
- Sep 18Dundalk FC v Shelbourne2-3
- Sep 18Derry City v Galway United1-0
- Sep 14Shelbourne v Drogheda United1-2
- Sep 14Sligo Rovers v Galway United1-3
- Sep 14Waterford FC v Derry City2-2
- Sep 14Dundalk FC v St. Patrick's Athletic0-4
- Sep 11St. Patrick's Athletic v Shamrock Rovers2-0
- Sep 11Waterford FC v Dundalk FC1-1
- Sep 11Drogheda United v Sligo Rovers2-0
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
5
Spots
1
Graded here
38
last 90 days
Called right
45%
of 38
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Premier Division
Favourite won
50%
Drawn
29%
Underdog won
21%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 38 matches we priced.
Table · 2026
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bohemian FC | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 16 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 | St. Patrick's Athletic | 16 | +10 | 27 |
| 4 | Waterford FC | 16 | +9 | 27 |
| 5 | Derry City | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 17 | +1 | 22 |
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