Primera Division. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Primera Division · next 8
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 32 percent
Market probability, home win: 36 percent
Our probability, draw: 33 percent
Market probability, draw: 30 percent
Our probability, away win: 35 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 32 percent
Market probability, home win: 35 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 30 percent
Our probability, away win: 36 percent
Market probability, away win: 36 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 20 percent
Market probability, home win: 24 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 50 percent
Market probability, away win: 48 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 49 percent
Market probability, home win: 49 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 22 percent
Market probability, away win: 23 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 43 percent
Market probability, home win: 44 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 28 percent
Market probability, away win: 28 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 65 percent
Market probability, home win: 62 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 15 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 31 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 33 percent
Market probability, draw: 31 percent
Our probability, away win: 35 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 46 percent
Market probability, home win: 47 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 24 percent
Market probability, away win: 26 percent
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Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Primera Division results
- Oct 19Nacional v Deportivo Maldonado3-2
- Oct 18Liverpool UY v Peñarol1-0
- Oct 18Danubio v Central Español1-0
- Oct 18Albion FC v Montevideo City Torque2-1
- Oct 17Boston River v Defensor Sporting1-0
- Oct 17Racing de Montevideo v Montevideo Wanderers3-0
- Oct 17Progreso v Juventud de Las Piedras2-0
- Oct 16Cerro v Cerro Largo1-1
- Oct 11Central Español v Nacional0-1
- Oct 11Cerro Largo v Albion FC0-1
- Oct 11Juventud de Las Piedras v Racing de Montevideo2-0
- Oct 10Peñarol v Progreso1-1
- Oct 10Montevideo Wanderers v Boston River1-3
- Oct 10Defensor Sporting v Cerro0-0
- Oct 9Deportivo Maldonado v Liverpool UY1-1
- Oct 9Montevideo City Torque v Danubio1-0
- Oct 5Nacional v Montevideo City Torque2-0
- Oct 4Racing de Montevideo v Peñarol0-1
- Oct 4Cerro v Montevideo Wanderers0-2
- Oct 4Boston River v Juventud de Las Piedras0-0
- Oct 4Danubio v Cerro Largo2-1
- Oct 3Deportivo Maldonado v Central Español3-0
- Oct 3Albion FC v Defensor Sporting3-2
- Oct 3Liverpool UY v Progreso3-2
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
8
Spots
0
Graded here
81
last 90 days
Called right
46%
of 81
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Primera Division
Favourite won
47%
Drawn
25%
Underdog won
28%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 206 matches we priced.
Table · 2026
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peñarol | 35 | +28 | 68 |
| 2 | Montevideo City Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +21 | 61 |
| 4 | Nacional | 34 | +10 | 59 |
| 5 | Central Español | 34 | -12 | 39 |
| 6 | Racing | 20 | +10 | 38 |
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