Liga Portugal. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Liga Portugal · next 7
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 64 percent
Market probability, home win: 62 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 14 percent
Market probability, away win: 16 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 56 percent
Market probability, home win: 55 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 18 percent
Market probability, away win: 19 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 43 percent
Market probability, home win: 44 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 26 percent
Market probability, away win: 27 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 8 percent
Market probability, home win: 12 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 70 percent
Market probability, away win: 66 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 51 percent
Market probability, home win: 51 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 22 percent
Market probability, away win: 23 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 21 percent
Market probability, home win: 25 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 49 percent
Market probability, away win: 46 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 12 percent
Market probability, home win: 16 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 65 percent
Market probability, away win: 61 percent
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Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Liga Portugal results
- Oct 19Sporting Braga v Gil Vicente1-2
- Oct 11FC Arouca v CF Estrela Amadora1-0
- Oct 11Benfica v Vitória SC2-0
- Oct 11Rio Ave v CD Nacional3-2
- Oct 10Casa Pia v Santa Clara0-1
- Oct 9Moreirense v Gil Vicente0-1
- Sep 20FC Porto v Benfica3-1
- Sep 20Santa Clara v Sporting Braga0-0
- Sep 20Vitória SC v Moreirense1-1
- Sep 19Sporting v FC Arouca2-2
- Sep 19FC Alverca v Rio Ave1-0
- Sep 19CD Nacional v Famalicão0-4
- Sep 14Rio Ave v CF Estrela Amadora3-3
- Sep 13Famalicão v Sporting1-1
- Sep 13Benfica v Gil Vicente3-1
- Sep 13FC Arouca v Santa Clara1-2
- Sep 12Casa Pia v FC Porto1-4
- Sep 12CD Nacional v FC Alverca1-3
- Sep 6Vitória SC v Casa Pia0-0
- Sep 6Santa Clara v Rio Ave4-0
- Sep 5Sporting v CD Nacional2-0
- Sep 5FC Alverca v Sporting Braga1-2
- Sep 5CF Estrela Amadora v Famalicão2-2
- Sep 4FC Porto v Moreirense2-1
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
7
Spots
2
Graded here
49
last 90 days
Called right
55%
of 49
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Liga Portugal
Favourite won
54%
Drawn
29%
Underdog won
17%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 241 matches we priced.
Table · 2026/27
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | FC Arouca | 8 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 8 | +2 | 14 |
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