Bundesliga. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Bundesliga · next 8
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 58 percent
Market probability, home win: 56 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 20 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 73 percent
Market probability, home win: 68 percent
Our probability, draw: 16 percent
Market probability, draw: 18 percent
Our probability, away win: 12 percent
Market probability, away win: 14 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 42 percent
Market probability, home win: 43 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 32 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 53 percent
Market probability, home win: 51 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 24 percent
Market probability, away win: 25 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 46 percent
Market probability, home win: 47 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 29 percent
Market probability, away win: 29 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 69 percent
Market probability, home win: 65 percent
Our probability, draw: 17 percent
Market probability, draw: 18 percent
Our probability, away win: 15 percent
Market probability, away win: 17 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 34 percent
Market probability, home win: 36 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 42 percent
Market probability, away win: 40 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 11 percent
Market probability, home win: 15 percent
Our probability, draw: 15 percent
Market probability, draw: 16 percent
Our probability, away win: 75 percent
Market probability, away win: 69 percent
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Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Bundesliga results
- Oct 18Bayer 04 Leverkusen v SC Freiburg2-1
- Oct 17FC Bayern München v RB Leipzig6-1
- Oct 17FC Schalke 04 v 1. FSV Mainz 050-1
- Oct 17SV Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 072-2
- Oct 17SV 07 Elversberg v FC Augsburg4-3
- Oct 171. FC Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund0-0
- Oct 17Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart1-0
- Oct 16Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln1-0
- Oct 11SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 042-1
- Oct 10RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt6-0
- Oct 101. FC Union Berlin v SV 07 Elversberg1-0
- Oct 10SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart0-2
- Oct 10FC Augsburg v FC Bayern München2-2
- Oct 10TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV2-3
- Oct 101. FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer 04 Leverkusen3-4
- Oct 9Borussia Dortmund v SV Werder Bremen2-2
- Sep 20SC Paderborn 07 v TSG Hoffenheim3-1
- Sep 20FC Schalke 04 v SV 07 Elversberg0-0
- Sep 20Bayer 04 Leverkusen v RB Leipzig2-0
- Sep 19VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund0-1
- Sep 19Eintracht Frankfurt v SC Freiburg2-2
- Sep 19SV Werder Bremen v FC Augsburg3-2
- Sep 18FC Bayern München v 1. FC Union Berlin7-0
- Sep 13SV 07 Elversberg v FC Bayern München1-2
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
8
Spots
2
Graded here
44
last 90 days
Called right
52%
of 44
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Bundesliga
Favourite won
55%
Drawn
25%
Underdog won
20%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 255 matches we priced.
Table · 2026/27
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 6 | +17 | 14 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | +7 | 14 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | +9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 5 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | +4 | 10 |
| 6 | SV 07 Elversberg | 6 | +1 | 10 |
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