First League. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
First League · next 7
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 44 percent
Market probability, home win: 45 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 27 percent
Market probability, away win: 28 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 37 percent
Market probability, home win: 39 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 32 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 50 percent
Market probability, home win: 49 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 22 percent
Market probability, away win: 24 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 18 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 57 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
—
Our probability, home win: 38 percent
Market probability, home win: 40 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 39 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 33 percent
Market probability, draw: 30 percent
Our probability, away win: 28 percent
Market probability, away win: 29 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 47 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 27 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent First League results
- Oct 11FC CSKA 1948 Sofia v CSKA Sofia2-3
- Oct 11Cherno More Varna v Levski Sofia0-2
- Oct 11FK Septemvri Sofia v FK Dunav Ruse2-3
- Oct 10Botev Plovdiv v Slavia Sofia1-0
- Oct 10Lokomotiv Sofia v Lokomotiv Plovdiv0-0
- Oct 10Botev Vratsa v FK Spartak Varna0-1
- Sep 20Lokomotiv Plovdiv v CSKA Sofia1-1
- Sep 20FK Spartak Varna v Lokomotiv Sofia0-1
- Sep 19Arda Kardzhali v Cherno More Varna1-1
- Sep 19FK Septemvri Sofia v Botev Plovdiv0-3
- Sep 18Slavia Sofia v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia1-2
- Sep 16Lokomotiv Sofia v CSKA Sofia0-2
- Sep 14Ludogorets v FK Septemvri Sofia2-1
- Sep 13Botev Plovdiv v Lokomotiv Plovdiv2-0
- Sep 13Botev Vratsa v Levski Sofia0-0
- Sep 13Slavia Sofia v FK Spartak Varna0-0
- Sep 12CSKA Sofia v Arda Kardzhali4-1
- Sep 6Lokomotiv Sofia v Ludogorets1-2
- Sep 5Levski Sofia v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia1-0
- Sep 5FK Spartak Varna v CSKA Sofia1-1
- Sep 2Slavia Sofia v Levski Sofia1-2
- Aug 31Arda Kardzhali v Botev Vratsa2-0
- Aug 30FK Spartak Varna v Ludogorets1-1
- Aug 29Botev Plovdiv v Levski Sofia0-0
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
7
Spots
0
Graded here
51
last 90 days
Called right
65%
of 51
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in First League
Favourite won
53%
Drawn
26%
Underdog won
20%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 225 matches we priced.
Table · 2026/27
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 11 | +18 | 27 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 10 | +17 | 26 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 10 | +14 | 26 |
| 4 | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 11 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 11 | -2 | 17 |
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